Araghchi left Islamabad before US envoys arrived. Trump cancelled Witkoff and Kushner's flight. The one active diplomatic track is gone, and the 3-to-5-day ultimatum expires today.
Trump ordered the US Navy to shoot Iranian mine-laying boats and tripled minesweeper operations. Brent hit $106.80. Even a diplomatic deal now has a physical delay baked in.
Iran seized two container ships and fired on a third. The US seized another tanker. Brent hit $103. And for the first time, a credible diplomatic framework for breaking the deadlock appeared publicly.
Trump extended the ceasefire hours before it expired but kept the naval blockade in place. Brent briefly hit $100 before pulling back. No talks are scheduled. Nothing is resolved.
The US Navy fired into the engine room of the Iranian container ship Touska and Marines boarded her. Iran called it piracy, walked out of talks, and vowed retaliation. Brent is near $99.
Three days after declaring the strait open, Iran fired on a tanker and shut Hormuz again. WTI bounced from $83 to $93. Talks resume in Islamabad tomorrow with 48 hours left on the ceasefire.
WTI hit $95 on a massive inventory draw, then crashed to $83 after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open. The ceasefire expires in five days.
Trump called the Iran war "very close to over." Oil fell to $92. But the ceasefire expires in five days and the US has not formally agreed to extend it.
US warships are blockading Iranian ports while diplomats return to Islamabad. The market cannot price both outcomes at once — and that tension shows in the price.
Attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the East-West pipeline cut 600,000 bpd of production capacity and struck the kingdom's main bypass around a closed Strait of Hormuz.
WTI has stabilized around $95 after the biggest one-day crash since 1991. Here is what the next two weeks will determine.
A last-minute US-Iran ceasefire sent WTI plunging 18% to $92 — the sharpest one-day oil crash since 1991, outside of COVID. But the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open yet.
Iran turned down a 45-day ceasefire framework hours before Trump's Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, leaving oil markets paralyzed between a deal and escalation.
WTI crude briefly topped $114 and flipped above Brent in a historic inversion, while OPEC+ made a symbolic output hike and warned war damage will take years to repair.
WTI surged 13% after Trump's April 1 address offered no exit plan for the Iran war, with U.S. gasoline crossing $4/gallon and the OPEC+ meeting just three days away.
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since 2022 as Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian oil facility, with Brent on track for its biggest monthly gain on record.
WTI touched $100 and Brent hit $112 on Friday as Iran rejected direct U.S. negotiations, with Trump's April 6 deadline now the next flashpoint for energy markets.
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