WTI crude jumped roughly 13% on Thursday after President Trump's primetime address Tuesday night gave markets no concrete timeline or exit conditions for ending the Iran war. WTI traded in the $105 to $113 range intraday. U.S. average gasoline prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, up more than $1 per gallon in a single month.

The market had expected clarity. It got threats instead.

What Trump Said

Trump told the nation the military campaign would end "very shortly" — within two to three weeks — but offered no conditions, no diplomatic framework, and no plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He threatened to hit Iran's electric generating plants "very hard, and probably simultaneously" if Tehran does not move toward a deal.

On the question of fuel costs for U.S. allies, Trump told European and Asian governments to "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT." He blamed Iran entirely for surging pump prices.

Analysts were blunt about what the speech delivered. "The market has shown disappointment because the speech President Trump made was far less than what the market expected," said Takashi Hiroki, strategist at Monex in Tokyo. Deutsche Bank said sentiment "deteriorated overnight" after the address provided no clarity on potential timelines or conditions for ending hostilities.

Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX, put it plainly: "With no plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he effectively closed, oil prices are to remain high indefinitely."

The Supply Picture Has Not Changed

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western tankers. Shipping traffic through the strait has collapsed 90 to 95% since the war began in late February. Iran agreed on March 26 to allow vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan to transit, a partial selective reopening that does nothing for U.S. and European buyers.

The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Gulf producers have lost at least 10 million barrels per day of export capacity. Any threat to Iran's own energy infrastructure would tighten supply further, not loosen it.

OPEC+ Meets Sunday

The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on April 5 is now the most consequential gathering the alliance has held since it formed. The group agreed on March 1 to a 206,000 barrel per day output increase for April, a figure that looks symbolic given that Gulf members cannot physically export through a closed strait regardless of what the paperwork says.

The meeting's outcome is unlikely to move prices lower unless it is accompanied by genuine progress on Hormuz access.

Where the Risk Sits

Bank of America forecasts oil at $100 per barrel through the rest of 2026. Rachel Ziemba of Ziemba Insights warned that further escalation "increases the risk of more extensive damage to regional energy infrastructure both in Iran but throughout the Gulf." Some Wall Street desks are now running $200 per barrel scenarios if the strait remains closed past mid-April.

The two-to-three week timeline Trump offered puts the window at roughly April 14 to April 21. If the strait is not partially open to commercial traffic by then, the supply math gets significantly worse.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Oil markets are subject to rapid change; verify current prices before making any trading or business decisions.