WTI crude settled at $95.40 Wednesday after Tuesday's historic 18% collapse. Brent closed at $94.80. The war premium that pushed oil above $110 for three weeks is largely gone — but the market is not returning to pre-war levels yet, and for good reason.

What the Numbers Actually Say

Before the Iran conflict began in mid-March, WTI was trading at $67. The ceasefire has not sent oil back there. The gap between pre-war and current prices — roughly $28 — reflects what traders consider a persistent risk premium: the deal is two weeks long, the strait is not fully open, and no framework for a permanent settlement exists.

That $28 is not noise. It is the market's estimate of the probability that the ceasefire fails.

The Strait Is Still the Key Variable

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21 million barrels per day of crude and refined product — about 20% of global oil trade. As of Wednesday morning, the strait was technically open but operating at reduced capacity. Several tankers that anchored in the Gulf during the conflict are working through port clearance. Iranian authorities have described the process as requiring "coordination," a phrase that traders have learned to read as slow.

Full restoration of throughput typically takes 10 to 14 days after a disruption of this scale. That timeline overlaps almost exactly with the length of the current ceasefire window.

OPEC+ Is Watching

OPEC+ meets informally on April 18, nine days before the current ceasefire expires. The group made a small symbolic output increase during the conflict. The more significant question is whether members use the 18th meeting to coordinate a larger supply response if the deal holds.

Saudi Arabia needs oil above roughly $85 to balance its current budget. At $95, it has no fiscal incentive to flood the market. Russia, still selling at a steep discount to sanctions buyers, benefits from elevated prices. Neither major producer has a strong motive to push prices down quickly.

The $88–105 Range for the Next Two Weeks

If the ceasefire holds and tanker traffic normalizes, WTI should drift toward $88–90 as the risk premium compresses. That would still be $20 above pre-war levels, reflecting residual uncertainty about what happens after April 21.

If negotiations break down before April 21, the $30 war premium returns fast. A single credible escalation headline moved oil $6 intraday during the conflict. That market sensitivity has not disappeared.

The most likely near-term outcome: WTI trades sideways in the $92–98 band until there is clarity on whether the two-week window produces a framework for permanent talks. Any headline on April 15–21 — positive or negative — will move the market sharply.

What to Watch

  • April 12–13: First credible reports on tanker throughput through the strait. Any disruption here will push WTI back above $100.
  • April 15: U.S. State Department briefing on the status of negotiations. Watch for the phrase "progress toward a framework" — that is the signal the market needs to drop below $90.
  • April 18: OPEC+ informal meeting. A production increase signal would cap the upside; silence leaves the range intact.
  • April 21: Ceasefire expiration. If not extended, expect a rapid return toward $108–112.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.