WTI crude closed at $102.88 on Monday, its first settlement above $100 since July 2022. Brent touched $119.50 intraday before pulling back to around $114, putting it on course for a monthly gain of roughly 55%. That would be the largest monthly move in Brent's history since the contract launched in 1988.
The driver has not changed: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western tankers following U.S. military strikes on Iran in late February and Iran's retaliatory blockade of the strait starting March 4.
On Monday, President Trump escalated further, threatening to "obliterate" an Iranian oil hub if attacks on merchant vessels continue.
How Bad the Hormuz Disruption Actually Is
The IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Tanker traffic through the strait has dropped roughly 70% from normal levels, with over 150 ships anchored outside the Persian Gulf to wait out the risk. Gulf producers have collectively lost at least 10 million barrels per day of export capacity.
Iran partially relented on March 26, granting passage to vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. Western tankers remain blocked.
OPEC+ Is Hiking Anyway
Eight OPEC+ members agreed on March 1 to add 206,000 barrels per day in April. Saudi Arabia led a broader output push, with the 12 OPEC members pumping a combined 29.52 million barrels per day in March, up 640,000 barrels from February.
The group's next meeting is April 5. With Brent above $110, any talk of additional hikes will run directly into the reality that most Gulf barrels cannot reach buyers through the strait.
Washington's Pressure Relief Valve
Trump signed a 60-day Jones Act waiver covering crude oil, refined products, natural gas, coal, and fertilizer. The waiver allows foreign-flagged vessels to move energy cargoes between U.S. ports, freeing domestic supply from the shipping constraint that would otherwise compound the import shortfall.
Where Prices Could Go
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent will average $110 in both March and April. Morgan Stanley estimates the disruption is adding roughly 0.8 percentage points to global consumer price inflation if it holds through the second quarter.
Some Wall Street analysts have begun modeling $200 scenarios if Hormuz remains closed past mid-April. The consensus view is that the strait must partially reopen to commercial traffic by then or supply conditions deteriorate further.
The April 5 OPEC+ meeting and any movement on a ceasefire framework are the two events markets are watching most closely this week.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Oil markets are subject to rapid change; verify current prices before making any trading or business decisions.