The Pakistan track is over.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Islamabad, met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir, called the visit "very fruitful," and left the country before US envoys arrived. President Trump then cancelled Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's 18-hour flight to Pakistan. "You're not making an 18-hour flight to sit around talking about nothing," Trump said.

Brent crude settled at $105.33 on Friday, down from Thursday's $106.80 peak but up roughly 16 percent for the week. WTI closed near $94.40, a 13 percent weekly gain. Both benchmarks have now held above $100 for over a week with no resolution in sight.

What Happened in Islamabad

The breakdown had two distinct moments.

Iran arrived for indirect talks, not direct ones. Tehran's stated position: the US naval blockade violates the ceasefire and must end before any substantive negotiation. Any communication would pass through Pakistani intermediaries. Iran's foreign ministry confirmed no direct talks with US officials were planned.

The US arrived for direct talks, or not at all. That position held. When it became clear Iran would not sit across the table, Trump pulled the delegation. Result: two diplomatic teams in the same city that never met.

Pakistan's mediation team, led by Prime Minister Sharif and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar, spent the day passing messages between parties who refused to share a room. That format has a ceiling, and this week that ceiling was reached.

The Ultimatum

On April 22, Trump said he had given Iran three to five days to engage in negotiations before the US would "resume operations." That window expires today or tomorrow, depending on how the count is read.

Trump has not defined what "resume operations" means. US forces have conducted active seizures and minesweeping operations throughout the ceasefire period. The phrase likely refers to something more significant, but the administration has not specified what.

Iran's response has been to reiterate its conditions: end the blockade, then talk. President Pezeshkian said this week that Iran "welcomes dialogue" but that the "blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations." That position has not moved.

Where the Market Goes From Here

Entering Friday, the market was pricing a low probability of near-term resolution. The Pakistan collapse removes the last visible mechanism for one.

The IEA's April report put global oil supply at 97 million barrels per day in March, down 10.1 million from the prior month — the largest disruption on record. That number grows with each additional week the strait stays restricted. Rystad's 1 billion barrel cumulative shortfall projection was built on assumptions the market has since exceeded.

Brent at $105 with no diplomatic path forward and a US ultimatum expiring this weekend is the current state. The next meaningful move comes from one of two directions: an escalation that pushes through $110 toward the $120 range some banks have flagged, or an unexpected diplomatic contact through a channel the public cannot see.

There is no third option that leaves prices where they are.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Oil market conditions can change rapidly. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Cover photo: The Strait of Hormuz as seen from the International Space Station, 2011. NASA/ISS, public domain.