OPEC+ approved the expected 188,000 bpd increase for August on Sunday and oil barely moved. The sharper news came from Aramco, which cut its flagship crude to Asia by $11, to a discount for the first time since the 2020 price war. Riyadh is fighting for the buyers it lost during the blockade.
AAA puts the national gasoline average at $3.83 for the July 4 weekend, down nearly 50 cents from the wartime peak but still the priciest Fourth since 2022. A weak jobs report lifted rate-cut odds and oil snapped its losing streak, and OPEC+ meets Sunday with sources pointing to another output hike.
WTI fell below $68 on Thursday, its lowest since late February, as the Strait of Hormuz reopening floods the market with returning supply. A bullish EIA crude draw couldn't stop the slide because gasoline and distillate built. OPEC+ meets Saturday to set August output into a glut, and the June jobs report lands today.
OPEC+ approved a fourth straight production increase Sunday, adding 188,000 barrels a day for July, even though the Hormuz closure keeps Saudi Arabia pumping 3 million barrels a day below quota. The deal remains unsigned. Brent traded in the mid-$90s. Analysts warn the paper barrels become a glut the moment the strait reopens.
A drone hit Oman's Mina al-Fahal terminal Friday, the export hub that was the market's workaround to the closed Strait of Hormuz. Brent firmed to around $94-95 after a midweek pullback. OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to raise quotas again, even as the closure keeps Saudi output 3 million barrels a day below its existing quota.
The UAE announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership. Iran's war, Russian backing for Tehran, and long-running quota frustration drove the exit.
WTI crude briefly topped $114 and flipped above Brent in a historic inversion, while OPEC+ made a symbolic output hike and warned war damage will take years to repair.
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since 2022 as Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian oil facility, with Brent on track for its biggest monthly gain on record.
OPEC+ faces its most consequential meeting in years as falling demand forecasts, the Hormuz crisis, and trade war uncertainty all land at once.
A mid-year update to the WTI outlook after the Strait of Hormuz war took crude above $110 and the peace deal brought it back below $70. Where OPEC+ policy, the returning Gulf supply wave, US shale, and soft demand point prices for the second half of 2026.