OPEC+ approved a fourth straight production increase Sunday, adding 188,000 barrels a day for July, even though the Hormuz closure keeps Saudi Arabia pumping 3 million barrels a day below quota. The deal remains unsigned. Brent traded in the mid-$90s. Analysts warn the paper barrels become a glut the moment the strait reopens.
A drone hit Oman's Mina al-Fahal terminal Friday, the export hub that was the market's workaround to the closed Strait of Hormuz. Brent firmed to around $94-95 after a midweek pullback. OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to raise quotas again, even as the closure keeps Saudi output 3 million barrels a day below its existing quota.
The UAE announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership. Iran's war, Russian backing for Tehran, and long-running quota frustration drove the exit.
WTI crude briefly topped $114 and flipped above Brent in a historic inversion, while OPEC+ made a symbolic output hike and warned war damage will take years to repair.
WTI closed above $100 for the first time since 2022 as Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian oil facility, with Brent on track for its biggest monthly gain on record.
OPEC+ faces its most consequential meeting in years as falling demand forecasts, the Hormuz crisis, and trade war uncertainty all land at once.
A look at the key factors driving WTI crude oil prices in 2026, including OPEC+ policy, U.S. shale production, and global demand trends.