When a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz becomes dangerous, the first cost to jump is not the oil, it is the insurance on the ships that carry it. Here is how marine war-risk premiums work, why they spike, and how they feed through into the price of a barrel.
Roughly 90% of Iran's crude leaves the country through a single island terminal in the northern Persian Gulf. Here is what Kharg Island is, why a strike on it would be a supply shock rather than a transit scare, and why the market watches it above all else.
A geopolitical risk premium is the part of the oil price that reflects feared supply disruption, not actual lost barrels. Here is how it builds, why chokepoints amplify it, and why it collapses faster than it forms when a conflict ends.
A surplus pulling oil toward the $60s against a war that could spike Brent past $100. What the IEA, Goldman, JPMorgan, and EIA project, and why they disagree.
A 50-year history of oil prices, from the 1973 OPEC embargo through the 2008 spike to $147, the 2020 negative-price COVID crash, and the 2026 Hormuz crisis. Inflation-adjusted comparisons and the pattern that explains why oil shocks keep happening.
A practical guide to the forces that push crude oil prices up and down. Demand cycles, OPEC+ decisions, the dollar, inventories, geopolitical risk, and how the same mechanisms work in both directions.
The US became a net petroleum exporter in 2019. Here's who's buying American crude, the top destinations, how the mix has shifted since Ukraine, and what the Hormuz crisis means for US export flows.
The oil forward curve shows what futures markets think oil will cost months or years from now. Here's how to read it, what it actually tells you, and what the current curve says about the Hormuz crisis.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds about 700 million barrels in Gulf Coast salt caverns. Here is how a release works, how long it takes to reach the market, and why it helps less against prolonged disruptions than brief ones.
Brent crude usually trades a few dollars above WTI, but the gap widens sharply in a Middle East crisis. Here is what drives the Brent-WTI spread, why it matters, and what it signals about global supply.
The IEA publishes the monthly Oil Market Report that moves prices and sets the global supply narrative. Here's what it is, how it works, and why it's not the same as the EIA.
Twenty percent of the world's oil supply moves through a waterway 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Here's what Hormuz is, why it matters, and what happens when it closes.
Oil at $200 would require multiple simultaneous supply shocks. Here are the specific conditions that could push crude to that level, and how likely each one is.
Diesel is simpler to refine than gasoline, so why does it cost more? Taxes, global demand, and a shift in world energy markets changed the math sometime around 2004.
The SPR is the world's largest emergency oil stockpile, and the U.S. government has used it as a market tool more than once. Here's how it works and why it matters.
The price on the pump sign isn't random, it's the sum of crude oil, refining margins, distribution, taxes, and the station's razor-thin cut. Here's how it all adds up.
The shape of the oil futures curve reveals more about supply and demand than any single headline. Here's how to read it, and why it matters more than the spot price.
Houston is the energy capital of the world. When oil prices move, the city moves with them, though the relationship is more nuanced than it used to be.
Oil prices don't move randomly, even when it feels that way. Here are the actual drivers, supply, demand, sentiment, and the variables that connect them.