With the Strait of Hormuz reopening after the 2026 crisis, the forecasting question has flipped from how high to how far down. Here's what the World Bank, IEA, Goldman, and EIA project, why the ranges are wide, and what has to happen for each scenario.
A geopolitical risk premium is the part of the oil price that reflects feared supply disruption, not actual lost barrels. Here is how it builds, why chokepoints amplify it, and why it collapses faster than it forms when a conflict ends.
A 50-year history of oil prices, from the 1973 OPEC embargo through the 2008 spike to $147, the 2020 negative-price COVID crash, and the 2026 Hormuz crisis. Inflation-adjusted comparisons and the pattern that explains why oil shocks keep happening.
A practical guide to the forces that push crude oil prices up and down. Demand cycles, OPEC+ decisions, the dollar, inventories, geopolitical risk, and how the same mechanisms work in both directions.
The oil forward curve shows what futures markets think oil will cost months or years from now. Here's how to read it, what it actually tells you, and what the current curve says about the Hormuz crisis.
Brent crude usually trades a few dollars above WTI, but the gap widens sharply in a Middle East crisis. Here is what drives the Brent-WTI spread, why it matters, and what it signals about global supply.
When you see an oil price quoted on a financial news site, you're almost always looking at the front-month futures contract. Here's what that means and why it matters.
Oil at $200 would require multiple simultaneous supply shocks. Here are the specific conditions that could push crude to that level — and how likely each one is.
The shape of the oil futures curve reveals more about supply and demand than any single headline. Here's how to read it, and why it matters more than the spot price.
Two benchmarks dominate global oil pricing. Here's why both exist, how they differ, and what the spread between them tells you about the market.